NH MIDTERM ELECTION RESULTS 2018 DOWNLOAD

Overall, these suburban, small metropolitan, and nonmetropolitan shifts strongly contributed to the rise in the national Democratic popular vote advantage, from 2.8 million in 2016 to 9.5 million in 2018.

There was also a shift in large suburban counties, from a Republican advantage of 1.2 million votes in 2016 to a Democratic advantage of 2 million votes 2018. When examining the votes for the 20 elections, the Republican vote advantage in small metropolitan areas and nonmetropolitan areas was reduced from 9.3 million to 5.2 million.

NH MIDTERM ELECTION RESULTS 2018 DOWNLOAD

To see how this translates into aggregate votes nationally, Figure 1 and Table A ( Download Table A) depict net Democratic or Republican vote advantages across different elections for urban categories of counties. Many of these voted Republican in both the 20 elections, but with weaker-sometimes much weaker-Republican support in 2018. Among the 3,013 such counties, 2,436 showed rises in the D-R margins between 20. In the former, Democratic support became stronger in the latter, Republican support became weaker.Įspecially important for the 2020 election is the trend toward weaker Republican support in the vast majority of suburban, small metropolitan and rural counties. These rises occurred in both very Democratic states such as those in New England, and in strong Republican states such as Nebraska and Oklahoma. In fact, 83% of the country’s population resided in counties with rising D-R margins. counties showed a rise in their D-R margin between the 20 elections. (The D-R margin is defined as the percent voting Democratic minus percent voting Republican.) A change in the margin indicates whether Democratic support increased or decreased over the 2016 to 2018 period relative to Republican support, even if the same party was victorious in both elections.* To get a sense of how county-level voting preferences have shifted, Map 1 shows the change in Democratic minus Republican (D-R) voter margins that occurred between the 2016 presidential election and the 2018 midterm elections. The 2018 midterms showed higher Democratic support in most small counties

counties-nationally and in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Iowa-shows how voting preferences outside of urban core counties have shifted since 2016, suggesting flagging support for the president in this election. Furthermore, recent polls in those states display sharp shifts among white voters toward Democratic challenger Joe Biden, and away from Trump. It also cut Republican voting margins in the vast majority of small metropolitan and rural counties, including those in northern battleground states. The 2018 midterms led to a “blue wave,” sending 40 additional Democrats to the House of Representatives. In 2020’s race, Trump is again focusing his attention on this base-but voting patterns from the 2018 midterms and recent surveys indicate support for him in these places could be weaker than four years ago.

The key to Donald Trump’s surprising 2016 victory was his outsized performance in nonurban parts of the electorate, especially whiter rural counties in the critical states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

Nh midterm election results 2018